Tuesday’s Home Strategy Weekly · Issue 412

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Market Perspective

What September may be telling us is that the housing market is entering a period of delayed reactions.

Buyers can recalculate their purchasing power almost immediately when mortgage rates change. Sellers usually adjust more slowly because their expectations are influenced by earlier sales, neighboring homes, and what the market looked like when they first considered selling. That difference in timing may become one of the most important forces shaping the coming month.

The Philadelphia region entered fall with more homes available but softer overall buyer demand. Inventory across the area continued to increase, while mortgage rates moved from approximately 6.66% at the end of August to above 7% by late September. That rate movement reduced buying power even before the latest weekly increase to 7.28%.

More inventory would ordinarily create welcome breathing room for buyers. But additional choices do not help equally when the monthly payment on those choices has changed. Some buyers may remain active while lowering their price range, reconsidering location, or becoming more selective about taxes, condition, and future expenses. Others may pause long enough to redo the math.

One local contrast helps explain the market’s uneven rhythm. Buyer demand across the Philadelphia metro was rated slow entering fall, and Philadelphia had more than 6,000 active homes by late September. At the same time, homes in Bucks County were still moving in approximately three weeks, and Bucks and Montgomery counties remained among the relatively stronger seller markets nationally.

Those signals do not contradict one another. They suggest that buyers have become more concentrated and intentional rather than disappearing altogether.

What people may overlook is the lag between a financial change and a seller’s response to it. A buyer whose budget changed last week may be evaluating a home against a different payment than the seller had in mind when choosing the price. If that gap grows, we may see more price adjustments, longer decision times, and negotiations centered on monthly affordability rather than the asking price alone.

For buyers, the practical step is to update the numbers before assuming a home is no longer possible. A different price, loan structure, seller contribution, or property-tax profile can change the calculation. For sellers, the important question is not simply how a home compares with past sales. It is how today’s buyers are likely to experience its total cost.

This is where a thoughtful Home Strategy matters. Buyers and sellers need to make decisions using the same current market, not assumptions formed under conditions that have already changed.

September did not show a market stopping. It showed a market recalibrating at different speeds. The people best positioned for October may not be those waiting for complete certainty, but those willing to revisit their assumptions as new information changes the equation.

At Home With Paul

It was a difficult week to be a Philadelphia sports fan, but fortunately the rest of life was much more enjoyable. It was a productive week in business, there were some interesting conversations along the way, and we still managed to squeeze in a little fun. Hopefully you had a good week too and found a way to enjoy the weekend while staying reasonably dry.

My Council Rock Living podcast continues to do well, and one of my recent conversations really stayed with me. I spoke with an 85-year-old Bucks County resident whose family moved to Holland back in the early 1950s. He shared stories about an area filled with farms and dirt roads, riding horseback through the fields, and eventually watching much of that farmland transition into the neighborhoods and housing developments we know today. Now I find myself driving around and thinking about how different everything must have looked 50, 60, or 70 years ago. It's fascinating hearing that history directly from someone who actually lived it.

Planning also continues for my 7th Annual Holiday Food and Toy Drive & Car Cruise Show. Tara Banks, whose podcast conversation I'm featuring in this week's Local Voices section below, will be joining us at the event to sign copies of her new book. I'm really looking forward to having her there and adding something new to this year's event.

The weekend got started Friday night at Shady Brook Farm for their Party on the Patio. It was one of those easy evenings where we could just relax, listen to some music, and enjoy being outside. And since we're officially into fall, I naturally had to stop at Uncle Dave's for some pumpkin ice cream. It seemed like the appropriate thing to do.

After spending part of Saturday helping buyers and sellers, we slowed things down that evening with a small bite at Steam Pub. Nothing elaborate, just a chance to relax after another busy day.

Sunday started early when I took my beautiful bride to the airport for a short trip to visit her mom. Her mom is now 96, so getting that time together whenever possible is important. As we drove toward the airport, the Eagles tailgaters were already out in force around the Linc. Apparently there is no such thing as too early when it comes to Eagles football.

Once I got home, I knocked out a few projects around the house before settling in for the game. Unfortunately, the tailgating may have been more enjoyable than the football. It was sloppy on both sides, but some of the second-half coaching decisions were tough to understand, and the inability to convert third downs was frustrating to watch. I think the tush push may need to go into cold storage until that offensive line gets bigger and stronger. Going for it near the goal line instead of taking the field goal felt like a turning point that handed the Rams a huge dose of momentum. With all the injuries piling up, there is plenty to figure out.

And then there are the Phillies. I was excited heading into Game 3, but that feeling disappeared pretty quickly in the first inning. After the early home run, they just seemed defeated to me. I eventually stopped watching and checked the score every now and then instead. How an entire lineup can seemingly fall into an offensive slump at the same time is something I will never understand. And as for the Flyers, let's just agree not to talk about them this week either. It was simply one of those weeks for Philadelphia sports fans.

Fortunately, sports are only sports, and there is plenty more to look forward to. This weekend we'll be spending some time with our Young Lady, which sounds like a pretty good way to put a rough sports week behind us.

A Holiday Tradition That Brings Our Community Together

What began during COVID as a simple way to help local families has grown into one of my favorite days of the year.

Our 7th Annual Holiday Food and Toy Drive and Car Cruise Show is coming up Saturday, November 14, and I hope you'll join us. Last year, hundreds of neighbors came together, more than 95 cars filled the show, and we collected 621 toys and 675 pounds of food for people in our community.

This year, we're bringing everyone together again for an afternoon of great cars, music, food, holiday fun, and most importantly, an opportunity to help make the season a little brighter for local families.

Saturday, November 14 | Noon–4 PM​
​210 Penns Trail, Newtown, PA

Mark your calendar, bring the family, and come be part of a day that has become pretty special to all of us. I hope to see you there!

Local Market, At A Glance

More homes came onto the market this week, but fewer buyers committed to one. New listings rose from 762 to 883, while active under contract fell from 375 to 345 and pending sales from 473 to 413. To me, that gap suggests buyers are taking another look at what they can comfortably afford as borrowing costs change.

Freddie Mac’s weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose from 7.03% to 7.28%. Bright MLS recently illustrated how a half-point increase can add more than $130 a month to the payment on a median-priced home. Even when a buyer still likes a property, a change in the monthly number can send them back to their lender and their budget before they are ready to move forward.

There is a practical opening here for both sides. Buyers have more homes to compare and may be able to discuss terms that help with upfront costs or the monthly payment. For sellers, that means looking beyond the asking price to what a buyer can actually finance. A seller concession or rate buydown may be worth comparing with a price adjustment, depending on the loan, the buyer’s needs, and the seller’s net proceeds.

I’ve seen buyers take a week or two to work through a rate change. The question I’m watching now is whether contract activity improves once they have recalculated, especially with more homes available for them to consider.

Weekly Local Market Activity, Recent Snapshot

Market Snapshot

The recent softening in average sale price looks more like normal market movement to me than a loss of underlying strength, especially after the higher pricing levels reached earlier this summer.

Average Sale Price: Past 12 Months

Mortgage Rates, In Context

When rates jump, one of the first things I look at is not the rate itself, but the rest of the deal. Buyers become more sensitive to monthly costs, which can make seller credits, realistic pricing, and flexible terms more meaningful than they were in an easier financing environment. That does not erase the challenge of higher rates, but it can create room to solve around them rather than simply wait for them to change.

Tougher financing can make smarter deal structure more valuable.

A Thought On Video

​When an Extra Becomes a Chore​

Extras left with a home can sound helpful, especially when they are offered at no cost. But I have learned to look beyond the gesture, because what feels like a bonus to one person can create an unexpected responsibility for another.

A Deeper Look

​Will Baby Boomers Finally Unlock More Homes for Younger Buyers?​

Millions of homes owned by older Americans are expected to change hands over the coming decade, which sounds like welcome news for younger buyers struggling with limited choices. But there's a big difference between more homes eventually becoming available and more affordable homes becoming available where buyers actually need them. What happens next may look much more gradual than some of the headlines suggest.

A New Listing Worth a Closer Look

Washington Heights

Five bedrooms under $400,000 changes the conversation before you even get to everything else this home offers. Nearly 2,100 square feet gives 631 Osborne Avenue an amount of space that may surprise you, including a first-floor bedroom and full bath, four additional bedrooms upstairs, and a four-season room that adds yet another place to spread out. The updated kitchen and new carpeting mean some of the work is already behind you, while the layout leaves plenty of flexibility for how the home could be used.

​You can see the photos and full detail here.​

Behind a Recent Sale: What Stood Out

Heather Valley

Few things are harder to duplicate than a beautiful home paired with a setting that is protected from future development. This extensively renovated property in the Council Rock School District sat on a 0.76-acre cul-de-sac lot backing to 13.5 acres of Bucks County Conservancy open space, giving buyers both move-in-ready condition and a backdrop with lasting value. That rare pairing is worth noticing, especially because location can be improved around the edges but never recreated. The home sold in just 7 days for $11,000 over asking price. If you have questions about what may distinguish your home in today’s market, feel free to reach out.

​You can see the photos and full detail here.​

LOCAL VOICES

Tara Bane | Tara lost her husband Michael in 9/11 and recently published Evolution of a Heart: From the Darkness of 9/11 to Rebuilding a Life and Finding Joy

Some losses change the direction of a life forever. After losing her husband Michael on 9/11, Tara Bane had to discover what moving forward could mean without leaving grief behind. What she learned about finding joy again is a story that reaches far beyond her own experience.

A Few Local Things I'm Watching

Here are a few local developments I’ve been keeping an eye on.

• Airbnb is partnering with the American Farmland Trust to encourage Pennsylvania farmers to offer overnight farm stays, including grants to help prepare properties for guests.
• Upper Southampton Township is considering changes to its use and occupancy requirements for property sales, with concerns raised that parts of the proposed ordinance may not comply with state law.

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Paul Rosso

RE/MAX Properties, Ltd

Bucks County & Philadelphia Region

Call or Text: 215-778-9687​

​paulrossosellshomes.com​

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